FACT CHECK: The New York Times Incorrectly Reports On US Fertility Rates
The New York Times (NYT) reported that “the fertility rate dipped to 1.6 births per 1,000 women, a historic low that is far less than the rate needed to maintain the population size, 2.1 births per 1,000 women” in the United States.
Verdict: False
The total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.6 births per woman. The replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman, not per 1,000 women.
Fact Check:
A recent Pew Research Center survey found that more than half of Americans under the age of 50 who don’t have children simply do not want to have kids, according to Business Insider. (RELATED: Did A Fox News Chyron Say’ Kamala Could Be The Oldest Elected Female President?)
The NYT, in an article about the falling fertility rates in the U.S., reported that “the fertility rate dipped to 1.6 births per 1,000 women, a historic low that is far less than the rate needed to maintain the population size, 2.1 births per 1,000 women.”
This reporting is incorrect. The NYT cites a Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report, but the report states that the TFR was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women or approximately 1.6 births per woman.
“The total fertility rate was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022,” the report reads.
The replacement rate appears to be 2.1 births per woman, not 2.1 births per 1,000 women. The United Nations website has a document that defines “Replacement-level fertility.”
“Total fertility levels of about 2.1 children per woman. This value represents the average number of children a woman would need to have to reproduce herself by bearing a daughter who survives to childbearing age. If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself in the absence of migration,” the document reads.
The NYT issued a correction after Check Your Fact reached out. A NYT Standard Departments member told Check Your Fact that the “article has been corrected” via email.
“Thank you for your note. The article has been corrected,” the member said.
“A correction was made on Aug. 1, 2024: An earlier version of this article misstated the total fertility rate in 2023 and the replacement rate. The figures are 1.6 and 2.1 births per woman, not per 1,000 women,” the correction reads.
The erroneous reporting appears to have first been spotted by Daily Signal senior reporter Mary Margaret Olohan.
